Holiday season is when online marketplaces either cement loyalty or lose shoppers to faster, louder competitors. AdClarity’s latest outlook on U.S. online retail marketplaces shows that Q4 2025 digital ad spend is expected to reach roughly 2.15 to 2.25 billion dollars, about 10 percent higher than last year’s peak.
Holiday Spend Is Moving Faster and Earlier
Looking back at the last five quarters, marketplace spend follows a clear rhythm: Q4 spikes to around 2 billion dollars, softens in Q1 and Q2, then climbs again in Q3 as brands ramp up for holiday. Social, video, and CTV now absorb the vast majority of budgets, with social alone exceeding half of category spend in most quarters.
For Q4 2025, the report expects social to capture roughly 46 to 49 percent of spend, video to sit around 24 to 26 percent, and CTV to account for about 17 to 19 percent of total budgets, with display near 9 to 10 percent, primarily as an efficient support channel rather than the star of the plan.
